GTB Partners 2025 General Election Analysis

 

On November 4, New Jersey voters cast their ballots in one of the most consequential general elections in recent memory, selecting the state’s next governor and all 80 members of the General Assembly. The results will shape the state’s political and policy landscape heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond. This election, and the Virginia election, are early indicators of where voters stand from a national perspective and the earliest referendum on President Trump.

Gubernatorial Election
In the race for governor, Democrat Mikie Sherrill faced off against Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a high-stakes contest that drew national attention and record-breaking spending. Mikie Sherill emerged victorious, securing 56.3% of the vote to Jack Ciatarelli’s 43.1% marking both a continuation of Democratic control and a historic milestone as she became the first Democratic woman elected governor of New Jersey and the first nominee to deliver a third consecutive gubernatorial victory for her party since the 1960s. Centenary University President Dale Caldwell will serve as Lieutenant Governor.

Much like her predecessor, Mikie Sherrill enters office without prior experience in state government and will immediately face the challenge of crafting a budget with Democratic legislative leaders while assembling a new cabinet. Among her key appointments will be a new attorney general, expected to continue New Jersey’s active stance in federal litigation.

Sherrill’s campaign emphasized affordability, clean energy, and healthcare access, while Ciattarelli focused on tax relief, government reform, and aligning New Jersey with conservative priorities. The race was widely seen as a bellwether for national political trends, particularly in the context of President Trump’s administration and the broader economic climate.

Turnout exceeded initial projections, signaling heightened voter engagement. While gubernatorial elections in New Jersey often draw modest participation compared to federal contests, this year’s surge appears to reflect a broader mobilization driven by national political dynamics, particularly voter sentiment surrounding the Trump administration’s second term and its impact on state-level issues such as reproductive rights, immigration enforcement, and federal funding for infrastructure and healthcare. In 2021, the last gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.4 million voters; this year, more than 3.2 million New Jerseyans cast ballots, a dramatic increase that underscores the intensity and salience of this year’s race.

Compared to the 2024 presidential election, this year’s gubernatorial race saw dramatic partisan shifts in several key counties, with Democrats making significant gains. Hudson County led the way with a remarkable 21-point swing toward the Democratic ticket, followed closely by Passaic County with an 18-point swing, and Middlesex County, which shifted 17 points in the same direction. These three counties alone accounted for a substantial share of the statewide margin and underscored the potency of Sherrill’s message in diverse, urban-suburban regions.

Additional gains were recorded in Union County (+10 Democratic shift), Essex County (+7.9), and Bergen County (+7), all of which had been considered competitive or trending Republican in recent cycles. These swings suggest a realignment among moderate and infrequent voters, many of whom appear to have responded to Sherrill’s affordability-focused platform and concerns about the direction of the federal administration. The data also points to a broader suburban consolidation for Democrats, particularly in areas with high concentrations of public-sector workers, immigrant communities, and younger families.

Assembly Races
With Mikie Sherrill outperforming expectations in key counties, her coattails appear to have boosted down-ballot Democrats, particularly in suburban and swing districts where ticket-splitting had previously favored moderate Republicans. Democrats had a strong showing in New Jersey’s Assembly races, solidifying and modestly expanding their majority in the lower house.

After entering the election with 52 of 80 seats, they have picked up five seats, one in the 8th Legislative District (Burlington County), one in the 2nd Legislative District (Atlantic County), one in the 25th Legislative District (Morris County), and two in the 21st Legislative District (Union County). These gains reflect the competitive nature of the cycle and the coattail effect of a hotly contested gubernatorial race. Compared to 2021, when low turnout and Republican enthusiasm led to tighter margins, this year’s results mark a reversal and reinforce the party’s legislative position heading into the next session. Early returns suggest Democrats not only held competitive suburban districts but also flipped seats previously held by moderate Republicans, signaling one of the most significant shifts in recent years.

Notable outcomes include:

• LD2 (Atlantic) – Incumbent Republican Don Guardian won reelection, and Democrat Maureen Rowan won the second seat by a slim margin, defeating the other incumbent Republican Assemblymember.
• LD3 (Gloucester) – Democratic incumbents Dave Bailey and Heather Simmons retain their seats in this closely watched race.
• LD4 (Camden) – Democratic incumbents Cody Miller and Dan Hutchison solidly secure a second term.
• LD8 (Burlington) – Democratic incumbent Andrea Katz holds on to her seat and her running mate Anthony Angelozzi flips the other in an upset.
• LD11 (Monmouth) – Democratic incumbents Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul retain their seats with solid margins.
• LD21 (Union) – In perhaps the biggest upset of the evening, Democrats Andrew Macurdy and Vincent Kearney defeated two moderate incumbent Republicans by a comfortable margin.
• LD25 (Morris) – Incumbent Republican Assemblywoman Aura Dunn held on to her seat while Democrat Marisa Sweeney won her race, flipping the seat for the first time since 1977.

Looking Ahead
With Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill set to take office in January, attention now turns to the transition process and the policy agenda for 2026. She will inherit a complex landscape marked by fiscal pressures, infrastructure demands, and a challenging federal policy environment. Early signals from the transition team will offer insight into how the new governor plans to balance continuity with change.

The FY2026 budget process will be the first major test of the new administration’s approach to fiscal stewardship. With federal pandemic aid winding down and long-term obligations such as pensions, cuts to the Medicaid program and SNAP benefits, and school funding looming, the governor will need to reconcile promises on affordability, tax relief, and public investment with the realities of constrained revenue.

Energy and infrastructure modernization are expected to remain central to the policy agenda. Whether through easing development hurdles, grid upgrades, or new technology deployment, the incoming administration will face pressure to balance environmental imperatives with ratepayer protections and labor interests. The state will need to streamline permitting, coordinate with regional partners, and attract private investment to deliver on these promises. However, affordability in New Jersey will remain a major concern. As part of her policy commitment to cost containment, Governor-elect Sherrill has pledged to freeze utility rates on day one of her administration, a move aimed at providing immediate relief to residents while longer-term clean energy investments take shape.

Healthcare access and affordability will remain a top priority after the election, reflecting voter concerns over rising premiums, out-of-pocket costs, and the broader cost of living. On the campaign trail, Mikie Sherrill pledged to maximize federal resources to expand access to affordable care for New Jersey residents. Sherrill will face a complex health policy environment shaped by structural cost pressures, including hospital and physician consolidation, escalating prescription drug prices, and a growing elderly population that is driving higher demand for services. These challenges are further compounded by looming federal funding reductions for Medicaid and NJ FamilyCare, which could increase administrative burdens on state agencies, raise program costs, and create risks of coverage disruptions under new work requirements and eligibility rules. Balancing these demands, the administration will need to address both consumer affordability and sustainable state spending, while ensuring continued public confidence in the quality and accessibility of New Jersey’s health care system.

Finally, federal-state dynamics will play a defining role in the next administration’s success. With President Trump in office and a divided Congress, New Jersey’s governor will need to navigate a complex federal landscape on issues ranging from infrastructure funding and reproductive rights to immigration enforcement and environmental regulation. Strategic coordination with federal agencies and neighboring states will be essential to advancing New Jersey’s interests and securing resources for long-term growth. In short, the months ahead will be a defining period for New Jersey’s governance. The decisions made during this transition will not only shape the next four years but set the tone for how the state adapts to an era of heightened political polarization.